Trump and Tariffs.
Trump's tariff policy seems to be one of the most stupid, asinine, dumb-headed, counterproductive, head-up-the-ass things that he has done so far.
Here is why I am less concerned than you might be:
The tariffs create political headlines that distract. But just as they can be easily announced, they can just as easily be changed or removed. I would not be surprised to see an enormous amount of quiet but very significant stepping back from the headline numbers.
Consider it from Trump's perspective: Does he really want to wreak permanent economic damage?
I doubt it.
Trump promised an American trade reset. Is this not just his opening bid? To create political headlines for his political base - and to open the negotiations? If so, let the games begin.
And my advice to the rest of the world: Wake up and grow up. Gather together your cards, come to the table and start negotiating. Prepare to make your move and play your hand.
This is not the end, or the middle - or even the end of the beginning. We are at the beginning of the beginning. This the starting line. It's just a negotiation.
There is everything to play for, and we can still all come out better off in the end.
I respect your work, but do think your take is highly naive. Trump has been announcing tarriffs for 30 years, so this is his ideology and it can only not happen if someone stops him.
Moreover, given the disruption and chaos which he has already caused, have shaken the confidence of economic actors across the world in the US and its adminstration. Which will have an effect on business confidence, investment plans and growth. So a lot of damage has already been done, irrespective of any potential deal to come.
I do not think there is a strategy or master plan, this is just plain economic illiteracy.
What do you think of the story of the Grand Master Plan?
Create uncertainty, make the 10 year yield go down so that they can refinance the US debt on better terms. Then create certainty.
Was mentioned in an interview with Scott Bessent.